气候预报自忆模式及其初步应用

计算物理 ›› 1999, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (2): 206-210.

气候预报自忆模式及其初步应用

曹鸿兴¹, 封国林², 魏凤英¹, 高翔¹

1. 中国气象科学研究院, 北京 100081;
2. 扬州大学理学院物理系, 225002

收稿日期:1998-01-21 修回日期:1998-11-04 出版日期:1999-03-25 发布日期:1999-03-25
作者简介:曹鸿兴,男,61,研究员,博士后
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(项目49475263和49675262)

Self memorial model of climate prediction and its preliminary application

Cao Hongxing¹, Feng Guolin², Wei Fengying¹, Gao Xiang¹

1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081;
2. Department of Physics, Mathematics and Physics College, Yangzhou University, 225002

Received:1998-01-21 Revised:1998-11-04 Online:1999-03-25 Published:1999-03-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从非绝热大气热力学方程和水份平衡方程出发,运用大气自忆性原理,导出了一个用于短期气候预报的数学模式,它由含地表气温、降水和500hPa高度三变量的差分-积分方程组成。用1951~1985年汛期(6~8月)历史资料估计模式中的记忆系数,运用该模式对我国汛期降水、气温作了预报时效为7年(1986~1992年)的试报。

关键词: 气候预报, 记忆性, 差分-积分方程

Abstract: By virtue of non adiabatic thermodynamic and the moisture balance equations of the atmosphere, a mathematical model is presented for the short range climate, which is composed of difference-integration equations with variables: surface temperature, precipitation and height at 500 hPa, on the basis of the self-memorization principle of the atmosphere. The memorial coefficients in the model are estimated by utilizing the meteorological data in summer (June, July, August)in 1951 to 1985. This model was used to give the hindcasts of the temperature and precipitation in summer for the lead time 1986 to 1992.

Key words: climate prediction, memorization, difference integration equation

中图分类号:

P456.7

曹鸿兴, 封国林, 魏凤英, 高翔. 气候预报自忆模式及其初步应用[J]. 计算物理, 1999, 16(2): 206-210.

Cao Hongxing, Feng Guolin, Wei Fengying, Gao Xiang. Self memorial model of climate prediction and its preliminary application[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS, 1999, 16(2): 206-210.