Abstract: Propagation analysis often overrate uncertainty of numerical simulation, especially as many uncertain inputs exist. Taking advantage of the reality that calibration can reduce epistemic uncertainty of system-level numerical simulation, a method for uncertainty quantification is offered synthetically using comparison information based on available test data and additional propagation information of modeling and simulation. An example with virtual test is displayed in which the method is demonstrated and validated.

Key words: numerical simulation, uncertainty quantification, calibration, reliability certification