Propagation analysis often overrate uncertainty of numerical simulation, especially as many uncertain inputs exist. Taking advantage of the reality that calibration can reduce epistemic uncertainty of system-level numerical simulation, a method for uncertainty quantification is offered synthetically using comparison information based on available test data and additional propagation information of modeling and simulation. An example with virtual test is displayed in which the method is demonstrated and validated.

According to demands of uncertainty quantification for reliability certification, in hierarchy of complex engineering system and development from calibration, verification & validation to prediction ability of modeling & simulation (M&S), the principle and method of uncertainty quantification of M & S are investigated. An example on detonation process is shown in which the ideas are demonstrated.