基于数值模拟的QMU决策体系

计算物理 ›› 2016, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 661-670.

基于数值模拟的QMU决策体系

马智博, 孙宇涛, 殷建伟, 王秋菊, 吕桂霞

北京应用物理与计算数学研究所, 北京 100094

收稿日期:2015-09-29 修回日期:2016-02-24 出版日期:2016-11-25 发布日期:2016-11-25
作者简介:马智博(1963-),男,博士,研究员,主要从事计算物理和可靠性工程研究,E-mail:mazhibo@iapcm.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（11371066）、装备预先研究（51319010207）及中国工程物理研究院科学技术发展基金（2013A0101004）资助项目

QMU Decision Based on Modeling & Simulation

MA Zhibo, SUN Yutao, YIN Jianwei, WANG Qiuju, LV Guixia

Institute of Applied Physics and computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094, China

Received:2015-09-29 Revised:2016-02-24 Online:2016-11-25 Published:2016-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 裕度及不确定度量化方法（Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty，QMU）能够基于裕度及其不确定度信息对系统是否达到其指标要求进行科学的判断与决策.借助新的数值模拟不确定度量化方法，建立基于数值模拟预测及其不确定度的QMU决策技术体系.结合库存产品可靠性评估的实例，展示该体系的主要思想及其实现过程.

关键词: 裕度和不确定度量化, 决策理论, 可靠性认证与评估, 数值模拟

Abstract: With margins and their uncertainties, QMU (Quantification of Margin and Uncertainty) method can be used to make decisions on whether performances of a product reach demands or not. Recur to new methods of UQ (Uncertainty Quantification) for M&S (Modeling & Simulation), QMU is actualized with input information directly from M&S and its uncertainties. With reliability assessment for a stockpiled product, main ideas and executing details of QMU decision are demonstrated.

Key words: QMU, decision theory, reliability certification and assessment, modeling & simulation

中图分类号:

TB114.3

马智博, 孙宇涛, 殷建伟, 王秋菊, 吕桂霞. 基于数值模拟的QMU决策体系[J]. 计算物理, 2016, 33(6): 661-670.

MA Zhibo, SUN Yutao, YIN Jianwei, WANG Qiuju, LV Guixia. QMU Decision Based on Modeling & Simulation[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL PHYSICS, 2016, 33(6): 661-670.

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